THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PREDICTS A DIRECT IMPACT ON JAMAICA

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STORM MOVING TOWARD JAMAICA

THE FORECAST FOR MELISSA HAS CHANGED. The NHC now says Melissa is likely to his the mid-southern coast of Jamaica as a major hurricane at some time around 2 P.M. this coming Tuesday. THIS IS A MAOR CHANGE IN THE PREDICTED DIRECTION. The storm was previously forecast to stay off shore. This means the entire island wi




FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER

ERN NEWS NOTE: The forecast map for the path of Melissa shows a direct impact of a major hurricane on the middle of Jamaica. The warnings from the Hurricane Center do not appear sufficient to the situation developing. What appears to be coming, if the forecast map is correct, is a disaster of major proportions which could result in the loss of many lives and a virtual shutdown of ongoing life in a great deal of the island of Jamaica. 


People should move back from the southern coastline, seek shelter inland where there are safe places to go (avoiding areas prone to flash floods and landslides). This is very serious and appears to be a very dangerous situation developing. In major hurricane, there is no completely safe place but being in a strong, well constructed building away from a flood and landslide zone is a good start.


GET OUT OF THE MOST THREATENED AREAS NOW. BY MONDAY, THE HURRICANE COULD BE BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGIONS. WE WILL POST SATELLITE VIEWS OF THE STORM DURING THIS WEEKEND.

 

IT APPEARS THAT THE N.H.C. WARNINGS ARE BEHIND WHAT IS SHOWN ON THEIR FORECAST MAP. GO WITH THE MAP BECAUSE THAT IS THE "WORST CASE" AND WHAT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY WANT TO AOVID.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning late Saturday or
Sunday, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge early next week. All preparations should be complete by late
Saturday.


2. Haiti:  Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  Monitor Melissa
closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm
surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next
week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides is increasing.

 

disasters after disasters in getting aid to those in need

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CUTS DISASTER FUNDING

.Scott Dance

By Scott Dance

Oct. 16, 2025Updated 10:55 a.m. ET

FROM THE NY TIMES:

Life is inching back to normal in the town of Cave City seven months after a tornado slammed into its corner of northeastern Arkansas. The only grocery store is about to reopen. Crews are starting to dig the foundation for a rebuilt funeral home.

But the town — like so many others facing daunting recoveries from recent disaster — has had to go it alone, Mayor Jonas Anderson said.

The Trump administration denied Cave City’s requests for Federal Emergency Management Agency money to help it recover. Mr. Anderson was forced to forge ahead anyway, racking up a bill of about $300,000 he said could end up eating 15 percent of the small town’s annual budget.

Some of the nearly 2,000 residents have gotten federal help. FEMA agreed to cover repairs to the more than 50 homes damaged or destroyed when 165 mile per hour winds struck in March. The state pledged relief money, too. But Mr. Anderson said Cave City is carrying more of the burden of recovery than expected.


ERN NEWS: The question pops up, where's the replacement? Where is the money when people need help when they are in disparate situations?

The main purpose of national assistance is to balance out the needs of various states and local areas with the funds from all of the states, most of which don't require emergency funds at any given moment. To put it in overly simple form, if you take the lollipop out of a child's hand, who is going to hand her another one?


Early in the 20 century, another president (Coolidge) told the people of Mississippi to recover on their own from massive flooding. The blowback, in the are long before the internet, was substantial. Indeed, historians trace the create of the modern era of federal assistance to those events which made clear two things: people need help and they expect to get it from their government. 


open link to the ny times

AT LEFT: Satellite image as the storms moved onto the west coast, worse flooding occurred in the eas

From the NY Times:

Emiliano Rodríguez Mega

By Emiliano Rodríguez Mega

Reporting from Mexico City

Oct. 13, 2025Updated 6:30 p.m. ET

Mexican authorities are searching for dozens of missing people and struggling to supply aid to thousands more who were caught off guard by torrential rains that drenched several parts of the country, causing severe damage over the weekend.

Officials said Monday that 64 people had been killed and 65 were missing across five affected states near the Gulf of Mexico.

The toll is expected to increase in the coming days as search and rescue teams continue to reach areas cut off by landslides.

President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday morning that her administration estimated that roughly 100,000 homes were affected by flooding and landslides. Dozens of communities remained isolated, and the president said food and water would need to be flown in.


“There were no scientific or meteorological conditions that could have indicated to us that the rainfall would be of this magnitude,” Ms. Sheinbaum told reporters, adding that the government’s eyes were mostly on the Pacific, where two storms, Priscilla and Raymond, had formed off western Mexico last week.

But it was in the central and eastern parts of the country — in the states of Veracruz, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro and Puebla — where extremely intense and localized downpours caused the most destruction, overflowing rivers and setting off landslides.

Some towns saw around 20 inches of rain dumped in just four days, government figures show.

FREE LINK TO THE NY TIMES

Outer Banks, 360 degrees video (rotate to see)

fox weather reports on people trying to save household goods

PHOTO BELOW, ASHVILLE, N.C. AFTERMATH OF FLOODING

WESTERN N. CAROLINA RUNS OUT OF HELP

 By Andrew Jacobs

Photographs by Allison Joyce

  • Sept. 29, 2025Updated 9:07 a.m. ET

Five years ago, North Carolina embarked on a bold experiment to road test the idea that providing nutritious food, safe housing and transportation for doctors’ visits can help fragile Medicaid recipients stay healthy and avoid costly hospital stays.

For Krista Shalda, a single mother of two boys with complex medical needs, that meant receiving a weekly box of fresh produce. The provisions made it easier to stick to the special diet that reduced her 15-year-old’s trips to the emergency room.

Kellie Prince, who learned she had become homeless while recuperating from spinal surgery, was given a motel room for several weeks so she and her family didn’t have to sleep in a car in the hospital parking lot.

And for Debra Hensley, 60, who is partially blind and physically disabled, the new roof and electrical work paid for by the Medicaid program, the Healthy Opportunities Pilot, or HOP, allowed her to stay in the aging trailer she shares with her teenage grandson.

“It’s not an exaggeration to say that HOP saved my life,” said Ms. Hensley, gesturing to holes in the ceiling that had previously channeled rain water into her living room.

By many accounts, the $650 million set side for North Carolina’s Medicaid experiment was a success, and it enjoyed bipartisan support in the state’s Republican-led General Assembly.

An analysis by the UNC School of Medicine found the program saved $1,000 annually for each of the 13,000 Medicaid recipients enrolled in the pilot, which covers three rural swaths of the state.

But the program is shutting down, an early casualty of the cuts to Medicaid that Congress approved in July. In declining to renew funding, state Republican leaders cited looming reductions in federal health care spending in President Trump’s legislation, which extends tax cuts and slashes social safety net programs.


State lawmakers have until Sept. 30 to reverse course and fund the pilot for another five years, but many participating organizations have already discontinued services, and some have shut down entirely.

“There’s a lot of heartache and disappointment to watch the demise of something that was stabilizing the community and helping people get back on their feet,” said Laurie Stradley, chief executive of Impact Health, a nonprofit in Asheville that helped administer the program in western North Carolina. “We’re going to see ripple effects for years to come.”


OPEN LINK TO THE NY TIMES

THE LONG ROAD BACK FOR WESTERN N. CAROLINA

a link to bloomberg news is included with this story

DEATH THREATS TO THOSE TRYING TO HELP

BLOOMBERG REPORTS THAT THREATS AGAINST FEMA STAFF CAUSED MAJOR FEAR AND DISTRUPTIONS DURDING LAST YEAR'S HURRICANE SEASON. 

Chaos Inside FEMA as Death Threats Distract From Hurricane Response


Internal documents show how online conspiracies and personal attacks disrupted FEMA during back-to-back hurricanes last year.

Members of the FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Task Force search a flood damaged area in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Asheville, North Carolina in 2024.

By Zahra Hirji, Davey Alba, and Jason LeopoldSeptember 18, 2025 at 9:00 AM EDTSave


As a major storm rushed toward Florida last October, the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency at the time faced a different kind of threat. Police had shown up in force to a rental property she owned as a result of a prank call, in a potentially dangerous attack known as "swatting."

As back-to-back Hurricanes Helene and Milton sparked a torrent of online conspiracies, FEMA officials faced harassment and death threats, according to hundreds of pages of agency emails and other documents obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request by Bloomberg News. The records shed new light on how disaster-related misinformation affects the government's emergency response, sucks up internal resources, and puts staff at risk.


Deanne Criswell, who ran FEMA under President Joe Biden, learned about the swatting situation as she was about to brief TV viewers on Milton, one of the most powerful storms on record to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. “It was a very unsettling feeling,” she said in a recent interview, thinking back on how she juggled her concern for her renters along with preparing Floridians for the storm.


Many of the attacks outlined in the documents have not previously been reported, including the doxxing of at least seven senior FEMA staffers. In those incidents sensitive personal information, such as home addresses, was published online for the purpose of harassment. The records also reveal challenges the agency faced as it tried to control the situation.

The incidents followed an online wave of disinformation suggesting FEMA was mishandling the response to the hurricanes that pummeled Florida and North Carolina in the lead up to the presidential election. Among the debunked claims swirling at the time were reports that agency workers had seized property from survivors and confiscated donations.


The offensive diverted agency time and resources to set the record straight and protect personnel. “It made my staff nervous,” said Criswell. “It made people in the community nervous. They didn’t know who to believe. They didn’t know who to trust.”

The threat of misinformation continues to loom over the agency at a time when President Donald Trump and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have made steep cuts to its staffing and funding, including pulling back on some of the resources FEMA used last fall to combat threats. In the aftermath of deadly Texas floods in July, for example, conspiracy theories online blamed cloud seeding.


HERE'S A LINK TO THE FULL ARTICLE ON BLOOMBERG NEWS:




LINK TO BLOOMBERG NEWS

Maxine Joselow

By Maxine Joselow

Reporting from Washington

Aug. 25, 2025, 8:00 a.m. ET

Employees at the Federal Emergency Management Agency wrote to Congress on Monday warning that the Trump administration had reversed much of the progress made in disaster response and recovery since Hurricane Katrina pummeled the Gulf Coast two decades ago.

The letter to Congress, titled the “Katrina Declaration,” rebuked President Trump’s plan to drastically scale down FEMA and shift more responsibility for disaster response — and more costs — to the states. It came days before the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest and costliest storms to ever strike the United States.

“Our shared commitment to our country, our oaths of office, and our mission of helping people before, during, and after disasters compel us to warn Congress and the American people of the cascading effects of decisions made by the current administration,” the FEMA employees wrote in the letter.

They added that they hoped their warnings would “come in time to prevent not only another national catastrophe like Hurricane Katrina, but the effective dissolution of FEMA itself and the abandonment of the American people such an event would represent.”



OPEN LINK TO THE TIMES ARTICLE

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THIS IS THE PBS one hour long REPORT ON HURRICANE HELENE

FROM THE LA TIMES:

LA TIMES WITH A LINK BELOW

As federal job eliminations struck the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service on Thursday, scientists and environmental advocates denounced the cuts, saying they could cause real harm to Americans.

The full extent of the layoffs across NOAA were not immediately clear, but Democratic legislators said hundreds of scientists and experts had been notified of terminated employment. NOAA — which includes the National Hurricane Center and the Tsunami Warning Center — is the latest in a string of federal agencies targeted for cuts by billionaire Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

“Musk’s sham mission is bringing vital programs to a screeching halt,” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael), the ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, wrote in a statement Thursday. “People nationwide depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather alerts, and emergency information. Purging the government of scientists, experts, and career civil servants and slashing fundamental programs will cost lives.” 


FURTHER ALONG IN THE ARTICLE:


Tom Di Liberto, a longtime scientist and spokesperson for NOAA’s headquarters in Washington, was among those who received a termination email Thursday, along with at least six others in his office. Although he wasn’t surprised by the decision — having watched several other federal agencies deal with similar cuts — he said he was still extremely disappointed and feared for NOAA’s mission.


“This is not something you would do if you cared about the safety of Americans ... the health of the oceans,” Di Liberto said. He had worked at NOAA since 2010, first on contract for several years before being hired full-time in March 2023.

“We weren’t just hired — a lot of us were working with NOAA for a very long period,” he said. He also noted that his termination email cited that he was fired “because of his ability, knowledge and/or skills do not fit the agency’s current needs” — though he said he had received glowing performance reviews. 


(ERN NEWS comment: these kinds of emails received by federal employees have used the same insulting language as a reason for people being dismissed even though there is no way a massive evaluation process could have taken place in a matter of days. This language was used either as a legal cover tactic or simply because the person sending it out was irresponsible and completely callus toward the federal workers. The wording, to the employees, represents insult to injury. You are not merely losing your income, you are no good, too.)


We at ERN NEWS, like all news media, rely every day, hour by hour, on NOAA and the National Weather Service. These organizations gather mountains of data and process it constantly. Without these sources the media ecosphere built around them would fall flat on its face. If they are weakened and wounded, the quality of information the public receives will decline dramatically.


NOTE: SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED TO READ THE FULL LA TIMES ARTICLE

Find out more

NEW YORK TIMES STORY

Trump Team Plans Deep Cuts at Office That Funds Recovery From Big Disasters


Christopher Flavelle

By Christopher Flavelle

Christopher Flavelle has covered U.S. disaster recovery programs for almost a decade.

  • Feb. 20, 2025 Updated 12:28 p.m. ET

The Trump administration plans to all but eliminate the office that oversees America’s recovery from the largest disasters, raising questions about how the United States will rebuild from hurricanes, wildfires and other calamities made worse by climate change.


The Office of Community Planning and Development, part of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, pays to rebuild homes and other recovery efforts after the country’s worst disasters, such as Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and Hurricane Milton in Florida.


The administration plans to cut the staff in that office by 84 percent, according to a document obtained by The New York Times. The number of workers would be cut to 150, from 936 when Mr. Trump took office last month.

Those cuts could slow the distribution of recovery money to North Carolina and other recent disasters, depending how quickly they happen.

free, OPEN link to the NY Times full story

NY TIMES LINK

VIDEO LINK OF FLOODING BEFORE HELENE FULLY ARRIVED

ADVANCED FLOODING

EVEN BEFORE most of the rain from Helene reached western North Carolina, there was serious flooding. In short, it should have been widely known that a disaster was pending in Asheville and surrounding mountain towns. The Post and Courier newspaper posted a link to video on FB. "The morning of Sept. 26, Chimney Rock Brewing Co. posted a video"

Keep in mind, this was before the major storm even arrived. NOTE: The entire building in this video was later swept away by the flooding and, according to reports,  other buildings on the river side of the road in the community of Chimney Rock, NC, were swept away. About half of the local post office was crushed in the landslide.

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