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Hurricane tracking and response

FORECAST MAP AS OF TUESDAY

Hurricane tracking and response

THE TIME TO ACT IS PASSING FOR WEST FLORIDA

THE TIME TO ACT IS PASSING FOR WEST FLORIDA

THE TIME TO ACT IS PASSING FOR WEST FLORIDA

GET READY NOW. Know where you will go and what you will do as the storms starts to head your way. Monday appears to be the best day to evacuate on your own accord even before official orders are given.

If you choose to evacuate, anywhere you can go out of and away from the projected path of the storm would be an option, including heading east from the western coast of Florida and southward. Another option would appear to be heading north and west toward Alabama. Remember, the forecast path can change so anywhere you go it is essential to follow up-to-the minute reports.


  • The message from last year's hurricane that was forecast to hit Tampa but then devastated Ft. Myers to the south and that area is this: take the storm seriously. NO ONE KNOWS exactly where the storm will hit although the forecast into Tuesday should be more accurate than those prior.

If you live in an area subject to storm surge from the ocean, evacuation is likely the best plan. If you live in an area with lots of trees around your house that can fall, consider the option to leave ahead of the storm. Consider that waiting to leave could be too late if roads become flooded and trees and power utility poles fall, plus there is always the threat of jammed roads if everyone tries to get out at once.


The entire cone of the forecast path should be taken as subject to being hit with impacts, never just the center of the cone. The storm surge warnings cover virtually all of the western coast of Florida, save the panhandle area to the west.

 NOTE, TAMPA: Last year's hurricane moved to the southern edge of the forecast cone and that is where Tampa is now, still in the warning cone and the storm could hit right there just as it did last year on Ft. Myers when the worst was expected elsewhere. Be ready and know it could hit your area.

FROM THE NHC

THE TIME TO ACT IS PASSING FOR WEST FLORIDA

THE TIME TO ACT IS PASSING FOR WEST FLORIDA

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 16 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.  Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern
South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.

3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina later tonight into Thursday.

How is the name of this hurricane pronounced? Here's what the Washington Post said:  Idalia 

(pronounced “ee-DAL-ya”)


TUESDAY EARLY AM COMMENT/UPDATE FROM THE NHC:


The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall

RED AREA: UP TO 16 FT. ORANGE: 5 TO 9 FT. YELLOW: 6 FT

The almost entire western coast of Florida is in the path

ern news

FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL

FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

A PERSONAL COMMENTARY FROM DOUG TERRY

ERN News:


First, everyone should evacuate Cedar Key, an island off the coast of the forecast impact one in Florida. With storm surge waves predicted to be at historic levels, there is little reason to believe this island, or most of it, won't be underwater sometime Wednesday.


Second, anyone who tells you what Idalia is going to do and where it will go in exact terms should be ignored. However carefully and scientifically obtained, a weather forecast is just a prediction and should not be taken as fact. Storms often change directions and intensity and a little change can mean huge damage and deaths. Last year's big hurricane was forecast to hit Tampa but went just south to the Ft. Myers area, killing 100 people and wrecking a wide area including Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers Beach. No one knows exactly what a storm will do ahead of time; the best we can do is study all the information and announce the highest probabilities. The final forecast, released at 5 PM eastern, Tuesday, is likely to be the most reliable of all but some change should still be anticipated. This is no reason, however, to forego emergency preparations to save lives.


The door for preparations  and evacuations is closing today along the west coast of Florida but there is more time toward the Jacksonville area of the state and southern Georgia. Where storm surge is concerned, getting out of the immediate coastal zone can save lives but you need a safer inland place to shelter. Flash flooding can trap people who wait too late or who insist on going out in a highly dangerous storm.  A parking garage on the second or third level can be a shelter in your car but going to a higher level be aware that the winds will be higher as well. Wherever you go, try to find a place with a solid, well built structure between yourself and the direction of the wind, coming in from the west..





ERN NEWS Note: if you are unable to evacuate and find yourself in danger from storm surge, getting to higher ground is one coping mechanism. An elevated garage is one option. See the link at the right for information about areas well above sea level. East of Tampa, as one example, there are areas of Lakeland and Bartow considerably above sea level and also more inland than the city. At least one part  of Tampa itself is 48 ft. above sea level.

EVACUATION/PREP

Monday and early morning Tuesday are good times for planning and evacuation, especially from storm surge predicted zones. As pointed out on the post at left, you don't have to go far from a coastal zone to get out of the storm surge potential. If you want to get out of the higher winds and heavier rains, go in any direction away from the forecast path which at present has the storm moving across northern Florida and into southern Georgia still at hurricane strength. 


THE LINK BELOW WILL TAKE YOU TO A TOPOGRAPHICAL MAP of Florida. There you can see the height above sea level for locations around the state. Note: getting away from storm surge does not preclude being caught in local flooding. Any low lying area, even well above sea level, should be avoided or evacuated ahead of time.

TOPO. MAPING

category simulation prepared by cnn

FROM CNN:


Category 3: 111-129 mph


Now in “major hurricane” territory, wind damage is much more widespread. Well-built homes and other buildings could suffer major damage, and roofs will sustain heavy damage. Numerous trees will be damaged or uprooted.

“Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes,” NOAA said.• Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm that struck during the busy 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It first made landfall along the Florida coast at Category 1 strength before rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico to Category 5. It weakened before making landfall in southeast Louisiana as a Category 3 storm.

Storm surge was estimated at close to 20 feet along the Mississippi-Alabama border, and estimated winds reached as high as 140 mph near Grand Isle, Louisiana. Levee breaches sent water flooding into much of New Orleans, forcing people onto rooftops for rescue. Katrina killed more than 1,800 people, left as many as 600,000 households displaced for at least a month and became the most costly storm on record, according to NOAA.



About Hurricane tracking and response

ADVISORY

Here are some facts about Category three & four from ERN News:


1. Well built buildings can survive but are likely to experience loss of some or all roofing, windows will likely shatter if uncovered, trees and big branches on trees will come down

2. Storm surge flooding in the area immediately inward from the coastal zone is the greatest danger if people have not evacuated beforehand. Storm surge flooding above rooftops, along with high winds, is generally not survivable.

3. Power lines will come down. There is a danger of electrocution form downed lines if the power has not been cut.

4. Cell phone service will go out in most cases and, like power, not likely be restored for a period of days or longer.

5. Many roads will be blocked with downed poles and trees and might be entirely impassable.

6. Tornadoes are likely to spin up as the hurricane moves in and can cause significant damage, injuries and deaths.. These are usually fast developing with no advance warning other than by sight and sound. Take shelter as you would for any tornado.

7. Fire and police crews will not be able to come and rescue you in most cases while the storm continues to rage. Only when the wind begins to abate will they be able to swing into action.

8. If you are in the hurricane zone, be prepared to survive on your own for at least three days with water, food and a comprehensive firstaid kit.

There are many sites on the internet that can also provide additional guidance.

Hello

What do the various categories mean?

If you'd like to know more about the categories of hurricanes and what levels of damage that might be expected, CNN has a neat animated graphic and written details on the same page.

Find out more

Video

NBC NEWS STORM TRACKER LIVE

Video

Local station tracks and predicts the storm

ERN NEWS: PUBLIC SERVICE JOURNALISM

WASHINGTON POST

The newspaper has an overview of the storm that is open, with no payment required. The Post often opens it's online pages on major issues as an intended public service.



Read More

Video

 Update from FLORIDA TELEVISION STATION

Video

FOX WEATHER (use the red slider if necessary at the bottom of the image to go to live coverage)

Video

FROM CBS NEWS

ERN NEWS, watching storm development

FRANKLIN IS HEADING VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER forecast now puts Franklin over Bermuda since, as they always say, don't count on the centerline as the only possibility, it is expected to go anywhere in the cone and, for that matter, can deviate from that according to conditions.

Support Hurricane tracking and response Today

NHC ON FRANKLIN

 
Environmental conditions are fairly favorable during the next few
days, with very warm sea surface temperature and decreasing
deep-layer wind shear. Steady strengthening is forecast and
Franklin could become a major hurricane later tonight or tomorrow.
The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous one and
lies near the consensus aids, HCCA and IVCN. Weakening is forecast
in about 3 to 4 days, as Franklin encounters increased shear and
moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast to
increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes.

Franklin has continued to move northwestward at 7kt this morning.
The near-term forecast has been nudged slightly west of the
previous advisory. A broad high-pressure ridge to the east of
Franklin will steer the system more north-northwestward and
northward the next couple of days. In the longer range of the
forecast period, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S.
east coast and most of the guidance has Franklin becoming
captured in the southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward
motion to the northeast. The main exception is the ECMWF, which is
the furthest right once again this forecast cycle. The official
forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, in the middle of
the guidance suite. The NHC forecast track still has the core of
Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda, but interest there
should continue to monitor the latest NHC forecast. By Day 5 or
just beyond the forecast period, Franklin may begin to interact
with the upper trough and begin an extratropical transition. 


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